Episode 04

[Jeff Probst]

How do you feel now that Diane is gone, is the game going to step up a bit? Where do you fall in the pecking order now? What are your options?

[Brenda Lowe]

I'm impressed with how much you have mapped out as of last round. I'm curious to see how much you can roll with the punches or be fluid though. How do you get Lindsey and Clarence into the same alliance for starters? Or do you even? Do they want to work with / like each other?

What potential speedbumps do you forsee to your plans?

[Lex]

There's a massive amount of stuff I have to type out, but I can't yet because I'm on lunch break for a seminar and have to head back to it right away. I promise I'll write everything on my mind tonight before immunity/tribal!

[Brenda Lowe]

Don't feel like every post in here needs to be an essay either! Lots of bitesize chunks can fill a hole just as easily as one square meal

[Mia Galeotalanza]

Yeah, I'm definitely curious about what oyu have to say! I haven't been able to check in here much so I'm dying to hear what Lex-a-licious has cooked up!

[Lex]

There's just a lot of information coming from people and so much running through my mind, typing it here helps because if I ever want to review my plans I can check back here for a recap. :P I was going to post last night right after Tribal but decided to wait until I knew more.
Anyways, I'll start today's confessional now... I'll leave TL;DRs from now on at the very end of the post in case nobody wants to read a text wall.


Last night after voting out Diane (unanimously) my original suspicions of Tom going next were confirmed by Frank and Kim J. I have no idea where Tom stands right now since I haven't talked to him much (like I said last post he seems really unaware of what's going on and could inadvertently screw us both by saying the wrong things to the wrong people) but Frank says he thinks Kim P. Linda and Lindsey are in a F3 alliance with each other, which makes complete sense to me since none of them have talked to me much about strategy. I was expecting something along those lines since I doubt any of the three of them would want to stay solo for long, and I don't think they are that naive to think if it's a complete Tamanaco F7 what's going to happen.

So basically I think the situation is:
Me (Lex), Frank, Kim J. and Clarence with everyone dedicated to F4 except me (Frank wants me in the F2 and so does Clarence)
Lindsey, Linda and Kim P. likely F3 alliance.
Big Tom ?????

It doesn't matter at this point if Tom joins the F3 alliance either since ties are broken by the tribe leader, Kim J. So we're looking good for now.

But as I said in my last confessional, the more I think about this final 4 the less appealing it really is, I'm almost certain Kim J. and Frank are close because today Kim J. implied "Frank knew why he was lust, I'm sure :P" or something along those lines in the general forum. And because Frank and I are (seemingly) close, he'll want to remove Clarence at the F4. And I don't want to get rid of Clarence at the F4, I want to keep him... and not only that, Frank and Kim J. already have strong cases for winning the game, so going with either of them to the FTC is dangerous. And not only that, but Frank is dominating all our challenges, so he'll most likely win the final immunity challenge. And not only that, but I think he'll take Kim J. over me because even though he's bluntly stated why he'd take me to the FTC, he and I don't socially talk much and we're not good friends like I am with Clarence. So this F4 is becoming a worse and worse idea from my perspective.

And not only THAT, but if I were to defect to Lindsey/Linda/Kim P, that would not only screw me (untrustworthy, etc.) but also remove my closest ally in the game right now (Clarence) and I have <1% chance of getting taken to the FTC with any of those 3 players over each other. And if I were to ask any of them if they wanted to join Clarence and me in the final 3 (I was thinking about having Lindsey, me and Clarence vote out Frank and Kim J. at the F5) they would likely reveal that to each other & maybe even Frank because according to Frank's messages to us 4 he's been talking with them a lot about strategy.

And not only THAT, but Frank is telling us we need to keep the LLK alliance believing they have the numbers in the F7 so they don't defect to Mariche, and he believes I'm the best candidate for the job because "they like Lex". So I'm stuck in a predicament now - whichever alliance I eventually will have to betray (assuming I join the LLK alliance) will hate me for playing as a double agent. If I can not join them at all, that would be great since I'm friends with Lindsey and Linda (not so much Kim P. though.) But then I risk going to the finals with Frank and Kim J, which is just plain a stupid idea. Frank's control over this tribe is multiplying by the minute. In fact he was the one who masterminded the entire Diane blindside. Even the false story Diane believed. Oh boy.



TL;DR
Big Tom is going next. Frank says Linda, Lindsey and Kim P. are in an alliance with each other for the F3, and that one of us in the F4 alliance should pretend to be friends with them so they don't defect to Mariche in the merge. He suggests me because "they like Lex". But I don't want to do it because nobody likes backstabbers. And nobody likes friendly backstabbers either. I'm hoping to avoid the confrontation at all, but if I do I risk going to the end with Frank, Kim J. and Clarence, and I'm positive Clarence would be voted out in the F4, and if either Frank or Kim J. win they'd take the other. Plus both Frank and Kim J. have strong cases for the FTC already. But if I defect to the LLP alliance, there's no way I'd be taken to the FTC by any of them either. And I think if I try to get one of them to join Clarence and I, they would reveal that to everyone in their alliance and it might even leak to Frank. I'm not sure what I'm going to do yet, I'll wait until after this immunity challenge.

Maybe I'm just a pessimist, since Frank has expressed to me clearly he wants to take me to the F2... I don't know if everything I wrote above is what would happen given the scenario, but one of my philosophies is "Hope for the best, prepare for the worst"

[Brenda Lowe]

Your TL:DR is also quite long

[Lex]

Well it's 1/5 of the original post... :p I hope people can make it through a paragraph of reading.

[Lex]

Oh god I hope Kim J doesn't put the LLC alliance into the Mariche tribe, that would mess up my plans entirely. Please no.