Stranded in Venezuela

So, I'm holding off on chasing up PMs (350 at Mariche alone already, eep) and just doing a confessional lap for first impressions.

First up, Mariche. Woman of the hour is obviously Sarah, who's been unanimously voted into the Cacique role by her tribe. Unlike the other side, they actually had some competition for the role, with John & Peter throwing their hats into the ring too. Sarah seems sharp too, and already sees just how damaging the evil tasks could be to her game. Pity she didn't spot the downside to being leader beforehand, nearly everyone else on the tribe said "fuck no, whats the catch?" She is quite aware of how potentially bitchy she can get, so I'm pretty happy to see her in the job. Hopefully she loses the run of herself sooner or later

Just to touch on John here - he states in his confessional that no way he actually wanted the leadership role. Putting his name out there was more to have people see him as a team player willing to shoulder a burden. At least one player in Gina now has her eye on both he and Peter as potential threats with minds of their own. Ooops, that kinda backfired so I kinda love John already though - he seems like *the* evillest player over there, and would have been my pick for Cacique even if he didn't want it. I get the feeling he would have just revelled in causing chaos instead of trying any kind of damage limitation. Immunity till merge has to breed some form of cockiness, and I think he woulda just been a complete agent of evil in the role.

No real thoughts on potential leader #3 in P-P-P-Peter, since he has yet to confess. His multi posting is amusing the tribe though, and I kinda hope it sets him up in a kind of incompetent comedic relief role :D I don't see him getting any SPV elsewhere though and he could well be the boot target by Sunday if he doesn't step it up.

Gina I think is the sharpest player over there and the one to watch, I already see her making endgame based on just a few confessionals. Her & Patricia are gonna be a power duo - mark my words. Patricia herself is obviously experienced, and I think just knows how inexperienced a lot of the other players are. I love that rep match-up btw, already s/he is giving off such a "Seen it all a hundred times you pups" vibe

However, I'm quite surprised to see neither of those two included in the majority fivesome that is forming- Sarah Gabe General Sean Vecepia

Sean & Vecepia are the two that seem out of place there. A lot of people dislike Vee already for her abruptness, and personally I can already tell her confessional is going to be like pulling teeth of Tyrone proportions Yet there she is being used as a number. Different strokes for different folks, and at least we know she is deliberately playing UTR and not just sucking

Sean too is in that set-up, but he is coming across as more astute in his confessionals, but he's also rubbing one or two people the wrong way. To quote Gabe "Sean is here to play and here to play hard" - I'm kinda hoping he gets a little villainous sooner rather than later. Another one (along with the General) that wanted to see Sarah get the leader role because he personally felt close to her.

I feel like maybe this five is just an early day rush to have something set up, and the more the two slightly late-comers Patricia & Gina get around, the more we'll see those two link up with the likes of Sarah/General/Gabe and the more the likes of Vee & Sean slip toward the bottom of the totem.

For instance, the General stated implicitly how Vee made a bad first impression on him, and there they both are in the same set-up Speaking of which, I think he's my favourite over there so far. His confessional is quickfire and stream-of-conciousness, and he has no fear of pushing his agenda onto the others oe coming across as headstrong. He wanted Sarah as leader and he got it. Not saying it wouldn't have happened without his little push, but I think part of his charm is that he's gonna take credit for those type of things. There is a huge potential there for him to make a hames of something further down the line in a kind of well-intentioned bumbling mess-up John has already earmarked him and Sarah as the "big two" of the tribe so he might be in trouble early depending if John were to push that.

Lat and definitely not least, Gabe is the poster child of the tribe. Everybody loves him, and his confessional is maybe the best over there - combined running thoughts with more detailed outlooks, yes please. He is obviously superb socially and I think is doing a good job of not appearing threatening at the same time. I am quite chuffed I have him in the sweepstakes now. Go Gabe go!



All in all Mariche is a potential tinderbox if they go to a vote in Round 1. Vecepia is clearly the preferred boot target of some but is inside that five so I don't think she will be. What I'm hoping is that there is a strong push against her and then a strong resistance to that vote by the five which *should* trigger alarm bells for the four outside that clique. If it were to happen like that, and say Peter left, that would make all three of Gina, John & Patricia very aware that their backs are against the wall. And those three on the outs and needing to scramble to break up that five would be so so hot to see go down

Now, should I wade though 350 meet and greet PMs or go check out the other tribe??

Seems like Sarah seems willing to become the leader of the tribe. So that's one possible candidate.

From Vecepia, to .... Vecepia! First selfie of the Season lololol I don't know why these always amuse me so. Good to see her keeping herself in touch with her thoughts :P

Yes I read the PMs :hee Found a selfie from Sean to Sean too :P

So I am wading through PMs, and already I have more of an appreciation for both Vecepia & Sean (those two sticking together, how stereotypical ). Vecepia does her work in PM, and it was her that first pushed him for an alliance, which then extended to the other three - which she made sure to have him do all the legwork on - and also shut down his overcomplicated 2+2+1 set-up when all they really need is their own 2 plus one more who wants an F3., plus two for numbers. In facta, sod that, all you need right now is a five, worry about the intricacies later lol. Point is, it's being referred to as "Sean's Alliance" by some, when in fact Vecepia sowed the seeds. icon_sneaky

It was also a kind of obviously, a - first come first served - set-up, with those five being first to the board, and generally I am not a fan of those kinds of alliances. But they also fail spectacularly so early and so often, and it is in no way the end of the other four's games. *points at Kim Mullen*

Also check this little exchange out - how much of the future game will be different for this;

Gabe wrote:Yeah! Yeah yeah yeah. Both of them are definite yesses. Sarah already messaged me about us three, I mean you, Sarah, and me, and I said yes. If we add Vecepia and John then that's totally cool. I like John!

Sean wrote:Oh man, i added the General :/ not John. I suppose we can still add him in right?

Gabe wrote:I totally forgot about General! I would totally rather have him. Ignore the message about John!

Sean wrote:hahaaha k :P

***

Thing #2 - P-P-P-Peter hasn't PMd a single person :/

***

Thing #3 - and this is just in it's infancy, John went to Sarah to suggest a core four alliance for later on, and included Gabe. Sarah suggested Patricia as a fourth to that. Which means that the tightest two on the tribe in Gabe & Sarah are the first official double-dealers Also that Patricia is making headway where Gina has not (yet)

Well, that's a wrap for me for the night and I've only really gotten to look at Mariche. The big news is that Patricia has been working her butt off all day to get in with people. In particular Gabe, and of course Gina. She quickly told Gina about this other alliance with John & Sarah, and she is gonna try "rope her in" as a fifth. Gina too has been ~werking it~ especially with Gabe. So much so that Gabe confessed to Sarah that of the two alliances, he'd much rather work with the P&J one.

There is no rush though, I see no way that Peter become the first boot over there. He has figured out PMs - he replied to one of Gabe's. But that is the only one he's answered. So Sarah / Gabe can happily perch between the two alliances right now and boot Peter.

It's only after that, when Gina is the odd person out that it gets interesting, because there is no way Patricia lets her be the second boot here. And no real way that I don't think Gina is more than capable of getting herself out of it.


I will look at Tamanaco tomorrow, but stupid Muslim weekend being Friday is gonna srsly hamper this same level of browsing.

wtf it's 5am and I'm still here.

Just had the briefest of scans over at Tamanaco, and it turns out Lindsey is easily my favourite over there.

There's a lot of characters though and different contenders for every spot past top #1. More tomorrow.

After a cursory glance at Tamanaco I'm not sure how they plan to keep the house of cards balanced after even one boot. Like on Mariche, they take out Peter and it hurts neither of the big alliances, but on Tamanaco, they don't really have a Peter. If they take out Diane, they have to blindside Big Tom or visa versa. And the same if they target Lex or Clarence - the web is built in such a way that there is no easy boot, or one without repercussions.

I need to examine it more closely but on first glance it just doesn't work.

Wow, I've been blindsided by Patricia. I went to her confessional first and she said John was now leaving and she would make it so, and sure enough - the votes are there to back it up. Wow, he does not deserve to leave first - like, at all. But then again, who does?

but since my wrap up above, Peter has been working PMs. And the missed connections such as Patricia/Vecepia have found each other. My extremem distaste for Day 1 alliances feels a sense of accomplishment to see Patricia/Gina/Gabe/Sean/Vee come together as a fivesome.

I need to examine PMs to see where that leaves the General, and just how much good work Peter has actually managed to do.

It's amazing what a vote scramble can do fro a tribe's dynamic.

It'll be sad seeing John go, because I do like him, but whatever, everyone on that tribe is really bringing it so far so it's not that big a loss.

Kim Mullen wrote:It'll be sad seeing John go, because I do like him, but whatever, everyone on that tribe is really bringing it so far so it's not that big a loss.

Forreal, we're going to need an entire second chance season for this pre-merge

Jeff Probst wrote:

Kim Mullen wrote:It'll be sad seeing John go, because I do like him, but whatever, everyone on that tribe is really bringing it so far so it's not that big a loss.

Forreal, we're going to need an entire second chance season for this pre-merge

You said that last season! haha.

well, just for the jane-jimmy t- erika boots that season. XD

Oh interesting, Peter's first foray into alliances was to start a group PM with John & Gabe, and as a side thingie to starting prodding Sarah herself about strategy. I knew he was doing something right. Also damn if Gabe isn't involved in every single alliance on the tribe that's gonna catch up to him sooner or later..

Peter proposed the Sean vote those three "agreed" on to Sarah, one PM before Gabe revealed that fivesome with Sarah & Sean both in

Peter wrote:She just replied "I don't know, who else wants to vote Sean?"

SHIT SHIT SHIT.

What should I say?

***

More good stuff here, Gina sums up General better than I can, and I believe this is exactly where the Sean train stopped, and the John train started.

Gina wrote:Regarding the General, I feel a certain level of affection towards him. He's good people. I was considering trying to enter into a little mini-alliance with him just for the fact that since he seems outside of the 'main group' and I'd like to try and keep him around. Personally I think he'd be a good ally for us. What I'm afraid of, though, is if I go to him and suggest that, he may go and tell John (should they have some sort of side deal) and then all of a sudden my head's on the chopping block a lot earlier than I think it should be. General's nice, but he seems kinda... dopey. Like, 'report every conversation I have to John' kinda dopey. And John's the kinda guy who would target someone just for strategizing without him.

Pat wrote:Yeah Peter's an absolute mystery to me. I'm hoping he and I can get some sort of conversation going but each time I message him he goes offline and then he responds way later when the context has completely changed

I really do feel for General as well it's clear English isn't his first language And if what you're saying is true and he is just being John's slave then that's bad news bears for us... I've got such a bad feeling about John.... especially now that you've said that. You know... and this is just a complete "what-if" idea but we could always boot him first? I mean, you say we need him but... why?! so he can keep his chickens in a row? He only talks game and it's clear he's only in for his own since he buddied up straight to the leader who nobody's going to touch.

Theoretically: you, me, Sean, and there's every chance we could convince Gabe. we'd only need one more.


BUT Sean's definitely the safe option. We have a day to figure this out so baby steps

Obviously I need to pay more attention here. Day offff coming soon!

Because Vecepia is the prevote from both Pat & Gina, and the way I was reading the tribe, I was bracing myself for a General consensus (badumtish!)

Aw poor Tom is so excited to get the idol clue from Kim ;__;

fake obvs.

It is interesting to see how Kim used that task, and the first one, to bring people closer to her. This time giving Tom & Diane the clue, plus telling others that she was giving them fakes, and with the delay thing making it seem like a family deal she raced home from to be a hero.

Whereas Sarah is making enemies one player at a time. :/

NuLex is amazing.

I've seen more planning and forward thinking in his first confessional than in most other's after three rounds.

Sarah is also a superstar <3

She got lucky with the timing of this particular task, seeing as a toss-up between Vee and Gina is already the tribe's dilemma, but damn if she isn't tackling these tasks with gusto

Where MamaK is trying to be delicate, and focusing the bad vibes towards the established outsiders, Sarah jdgaf lolol

I was gonna post this in the LL but sod it, I've been slacking here and this way I can put a chunk more detail into it.

ROUND 4

TBH, not all that much happening over on Tamanaco, with the Diane boot being unanimous, the next one will be Big Tom for sure. His only saving grace would be an idol, but he's chasing his tail looking for it with a fake clue. he needs to pull his head out of the sand and question why MamaK would give Diane a legit clue only to turn round and boot her, and where that leaves him now.

Once he does leave, it can get interesting over there. there's lots of crossdeals etc but the real dynamic would be Frank's five, versus Frank's four. lol

The four is Frank / MamaK / NuLex / Clarence
The five is Frank / MamaK / Lindsey / Linda / L'il Kim

Frank & MamaK are absolutely spot on in their fears that the three younger ladies are a pretty tight trio within that five, and if they could know there'd never be a shuffle, then I reckon they'd break it up in favor of the guys without hesitation. But they can't expect that (cos there will be a shuffle soon :P ) so if Tamanaco have to face a second boot before that point, I'd expect it to be first Tom, and then Clarence most likely - since Lex is making better inroads elsewhere.

Only then would it get interesting as Frank and MamaK have to choose between his five or his four. Their five is bigger, but they feel like the other three in the five have a trio within that (He is correct, of course) and they trust the foursome more because of it. Plenty of little cross-deals and duos in with all of that that's a round away yet.

And of course uggggggghhhh, I had this half typed and we discover the swap is indeed after this round lol. Posting it anyways ya feckers.





On Mariche though shit is about to hit the fan.

-Patricia sees Gina as her #1, and will in no way let her leave. She'd like to see Vee leave next.
-Sean sees Vee as his #1, no questions asked. And want to see Gina leave next preferably.

Patricia and Sean are pretty tightly allied too, they just have really different outlooks on who the last people standing in this tribe should be. lololol

Patricia is adamant Gina will not leave. Sean is maybe a little more flexible? But looking at the other votes;
The General wants Vee to stick around and Gina out
Gabe would rather keep Gina to keep Pat happy, but of course he is allied to the whole damn tribe - inparticular the General/Sarah/Sean/Vee set-up - will he boot one of those and burn the other three (potentially) just for Pat?
Sarah I think could legitimately go either way, but would maybe slightly prefer Gina leaving, despite their work at rebuilding their relationship.

All of General, Sarah & Gabe could honestly go either way if they thought that was the majority. Or maybe Sean & Patricia hammer it out and it goes some other way entirely. The one person people would probably all agree on booting is immune lol, Sarah of course.

All the more delicious, because I believe Sarah is fast becoming the swing then between;
a Gina boot - by General/Sean/Vee
a Vecepia boot - by Gina/Patricia/Gabe



Mariche to lose tonight pls, and this vote to get messy.

Frank wrote:Sent a little deal to Tom. Told him he can help himself by giving me information, dirt, on what people told him and how he knew about Diane vote. His answer will tell me everything I need to know, directly and indirectly.

For retrospect;

Frank to Big Tom wrote:Well, you're not really sitting pretty well if we go to Tribal tonight. I know you got associated with Diane early and that's what got you in this spot. You got a bit of a rough deal. I'm gonna give you some lee way to save yourself and put yourself in a better position in the tribe.

You voted for Diane, you knew she was going home. I didn't tell you that because I didn't know how close you two still were, and she might've found the idol by some random chance. Someone did tell you, someone endangered the plan a little bit. Here's how you can help yourself. Give me information, tell me all the dirt you know, all the things everyone told you, strategy wise. I know a lot of lies that have been told to you by people, so I would know if you just make things up or omit things. There's a chance you know something I don't know and that might help divert the attention from you and on to someone else.

I like you but I don't know what you're up to strategically so I can't really trust you. Give me a reason to keep you around. I know you must think some people have your back, but they don't. You gotta help yourself in this game.