Stranded in Venezuela

I'm going to make a prediction going into tonight's council.

i think that Sean will not be happy about losing Sarah and I think rightfully so. Without Sarah, Sean will become an instant target and I think he will go next. They are saying htey would boot Patty, but i'm not so sure I believe that. Either way, in order for Sean OR Patricia to stay in the game as long as possible, they need to keep Sarah in as a distraction. We'll see if htey are smart enough to do that or if they will give up their games tonight for no reason.

I mean, if I'm Sean, all I need to do is make it to the end to win at any means necessary so I would keep in all of the most threatening people and take them with me to the final three, because who cares, i'll win anyway nad that way I ensure that I'm in the finals and not the obvious target.

Sean and Patricia need to know that everyone else sees they are threats and need to team up to get to the end together. That won't happen though... theyll boot Sarah tonight unwittingly and give up the opportunity to blindside the other couples in the game: Lindsey/Gina and Linda/Lex who will team up to get them out.

I agree, Probsty.

This episode is EXTREMELY frustrating to watch. I'm sure that all of the players probably hate me for grilling them so hard (and I'm verging on coaxing them into doing what I think they should be doing, so I'll cool it a little), but really, I hate to see so many players not only ruin their own games, but ruin the games of several others AND ruin what could be a very exciting season.

At least 5 of the 8 players left are KILLING the game right now, and not in a good way. In fact, I'd say they're ruining the outcome. The right connections just aren't happening and it's killing me. At the beginning of this we saw a lot of raw and untapped skill that's just gone sour at this point. Almost none of them are playing smart and playing well enough to be a great winner. I mean, ONE of them is going to win, but I don't see any of them being a very kickass winner at this point.

Such a shame.

(But Sean, or even Patty, even though I hate her) would both be great/exciting winners. But it just isn't going to happen.)

I wouldn't go that far... ive monitored your questions and I don't think you've crossed the line but you've come near it. I think I came too close with the Gina/Sarah moment but i dont think the question itself was unwaranted, nor did it expect an outcome.

It's a hard line to walk because you don't want to manipulate the outcome, but you do want to ask them their reasoning behind things that may seem illogical so that we understand their point of view.

I dont think that having Sara/Pat/Sean go back to back would RUIN the game or the outcome. It wouldn't be the most entertaining or exciting outcome but when is it ever?

Lex is shocking because he seemed to have such a good outlook on the game, it makes me want to know what i'm missing in his logic or if he's just being illogical.

I'm a little confused right now. Obviously Gina and Lindsey felt the vote would be split between them right now. Gina has immunity, and an idol, that she could play on Lindsey, right?
But aren't Gabe/Sean/Linda/Lex planning on blindsiding Patricia anyway? Could Gina waste her idol tonight?

Patricia wrote:I really couldn't have asked for a better TC in terms of getting the threat level target off my back :P

And thanks to Sarah, Lindsey/Gina/Sean are all going to get voted out.

lol

Forget Margaret Thatcher

Forget Julia Gillard

NOW is the appropriate moment for...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PHQLQ1Rc_Js

I think with Lex it's hard to watch. He is very capable, obviously, and he has a pretty decent grasp on the game. it's just hard to watch play out because it's not exciting. He is combining what is good moves for his game along with what will ruffle the least feathers, which is just a dull recipe. he's good though, very good.

Brenda Lowe wrote:I think with Lex it's hard to watch. He is very capable, obviously, and he has a pretty decent grasp on the game. it's just hard to watch play out because it's not exciting. He is combining what is good moves for his game along with what will ruffle the least feathers, which is just a dull recipe. he's good though, very good.

Maybe so... I like Lex's character, I've just been disappointed by it in the later merge. I think he's not made enough of a splash to win in the end and in turn he's been boring. I think he is too reliant on Gabriel and his moves aren't making logical sense in terms of that, BUT he is a very smart guy as we've all seen and said time and time again so who knows maybe we're just not getting it. I do wish he would step up and make some more moves for himself though because the way he's going he's too UTR and I'm not sure the jury will appreciate that as much as say... Lindsey/Gina/Sean.

Jeff Probst wrote:I'm not sure the jury will appreciate that as much as say... Lindsey/Gina/Sean.

Which is exactly why he needs to from right now make his moves, and stop avoiding the spotlight. Take out Sean this round as biggest threat. Then hook up with Gabe & Linda and play the "we can only beat each other at the end" card to knock out the two of Lindsey & Gina.

I think that would be his best chance to win, although even then Gabe might edge him out.

I honestly don't know if he sees this though. I meant to do a full catch up today but the one place I haven't visited in three rounds is the active player's confessionals


Just for this busy spell I'm hitting in RL, Ramadan began today in the country I'm working in. Which means the whole country goes into sleep mode during the daytime & I personally move to 6am shifts Although on the bright side my 11 hour days become only 8 so it's a mixed bag of busyness. As ever, I'll swing in when I can but live events are just totally out of the realm of possibility.

Okay just dipping into his confessional there, and this does seems to be his loose plan. The one thing he's missing out on, is that Lindsey would likely beat him at the end too. Yes she is not as impressive strategically or threatening as Gina/Sean, but he has a bit of a blind spot for just how well regarded she was with a lot of the Jury. People will get over her voting them out if she can fall back on her early social connections to them. Well maybe not Kim P but he's not getting her vote regardless. But say he decides Gabe was too close to too many people and burns him at F4 for a him / Linda / Lindsey final three - she could easily pick up all of Gabe / Gina / Patricia / Sarah / Clarence / MamaK's votes without breaking a sweat.

Yea, I suppose Lex is in just as good of a position if not better than Gina or Lindsey, it's just going to come down to if the jury is bitter and who they connected with the most.

Am I the only one who struggles to get through a Gabe video?

I still like them. I was afraid the novelty would wear off but he has a decent camera presence. Some of his affectations keep it from getting dull. It's awkward though when you want to do a confessional fly-by and it's a 10 minute watch just for a quick update.

So I actually did do a lap, let's see.

Sean - is in major trouble without immunity. Everyone sees him as a threat, and no-one is even considering keeping him in as a shield for another round. You were spot on that him & Patty needed each other. He needed Patty (& probs Sarah too) in the game to keep the focus somewhat elsewhere. It is one of those quirks of Survivor that as a big threat, while it's tempting to find the goatiest goats you can rustle up, what is better for your game is to go with the other threats and just have confidence you will thump em all at the end. Hopefully he wins the immunity though, cos then I have no idea what would happen.

Gina has to be the odds-on favourite to win outright, Linda thinks she is beatable, and neither of Gabe nor Lindsey have any qualms about going to the end with her (well Gabe does, but he's still leaning toward Lex being a bigger threat).

Lindsey - needs an F3 of Gabe / Linda or Lex / Linda for her best chance to win it. Which means cutting Gina. Somehow. Preferably through no visible fault of her own at F5. Now she can still win an F3 with Gina in it don't get me wrong, but she doesn't see that she could beat Lex - especially if it was there with Linda, or how she will bleed potential voters to Gina.

Lex, we've covered.

Linda is opening her eyes to her goat status. I wanna post this in her confessional so bad;



But that would be rude

Gabe is the hardest one to call here. He has a reallll good chance of getting to the end, but he way overestimates his own game and how much of it he could convince the Jury was him and not Patricia. A good UTR / behind the scenes game is a hard jury sell at the best of times :/ He needs to make his mind up quicksmart about who he wants to be at the end with. And then very visibly make sure he gets the credit for it too. Because if there is even a hint of him getting dragged there against his will by say, Sean or Gina or Lindsey, he will get chewed out for it for sure.

Oops, I meant to say with Linda. There are ways to win as a goat. You can play up the "I was guaranteed F3 since the merge" factor - but to be successful you absolutely need to still be able to appear in control of your own goatey destiny. And Linda cannot do this unfortunately. She can still naba vote or two at FTC but right now she is Costa Rican Lisa from two Seasons back. She is a lock for F3 but has next to no chance of winning.

At the moment, it's looking like there will be a setup for a Lex/Linda/Gabe F3. Shoot me now.

Gina and Lindsey still want Sean gone, but Sean makes a good point when he tells them that they need to take out Lex or else they'll be down 2 to 3 at F5. If Lex DOES leave, Gina and Lindsey go into the Final 5 with Sean still as a target, which is great for them because it takes the target off their back. Obviously it's not ideal for Sean, but I like seehing him play with his back against the wall, so I'd be pretty happy to see Lex go tonight. Hopefully Lindsey and Gina can see long term and figure out what's best for them.

Also might I suggest a topic title change to "Last Merge/Endgame" or something?

Yupyup. We are blogging for a change. H/o I will tweak it.

Lets keep this till the finale, and start a new thread then for FTC talk.

Also (once again) apologies to post game readers for slipping on the blogging front - but there is a better than usual lurker area this Season, so head over there for your gossip fix

Obviously these people would be stupid to not get rid of Gina. I don't think she's getting to FTC to be honest, even though I do really like her.
Linda is =/
Lindsey I liked pre-merge but I feel like she's been such a rollercoaster post-merge. I think she could win if she has a really good Final Tribal.
I like Gabe and actually think people are underestimating him. I do think he's played a good UTR game but even UTR needs some pizazz to them, and Gabe's biggest move was... voting Pat off? Not really that big of an accomplishment, especially since it was a unanimous and easy decision and didn't take too much convincing.
Lex I just adore because he showed up two days late to a tribe with a VERY locked in alliance of 5 of the Kims/Frank/Lindsey and was able to survive over Diane and Tom, and would've survived over Clarence, and then I feel like the switch gave him the power he needed to really excel in this, and I think he has.

It's really completely up in the air though. I could see anyone aside from Linda winning, and I think the other 4 would make very solid winners.

I think it may be a case of "Win the final challenge, win the game"

unless of course Linda wins it. Then there's a problem with this situation.

Holly Hoffman wrote:I think it may be a case of "Win the final challenge, win the game"

unless of course Linda wins it. Then there's a problem with this situation.

Agreed, espeically since it will be a challenge where you have to want it.

My prediction: Lindsey goes this round, Gina wins final Immunity and Lex goes. Gina wins.